The bottom line, as the fleet heads towards the Doldrums is that there is everything still to play for and Dongfeng is well-placed at this stage. But there will be some tricky days ahead in the second Doldrums, also known as the South Pacific Convergence Zone.
So Marcel, first things first, what on earth was going on in the first few days of this leg?
I think you are referring to the way the boats were heading northeast, away from New Zealand. Well, the problem getting out of Hong Kong was that the weather forced you north and you were faced with that situation. Even if you left Hong Kong later it would make no difference after about a week. The only difference was that it would have made your route a bit shorter and enable you to cut the corner a little bit more. But basically the boats had to head north and wait in the north for a light air patch to move away – and that is pretty much what happened as expected.
And Team AkzoNobel and SHK/Scallywag were able to pounce from behind?
Yes Akzo and Scallywag got delayed by the weather, which was not really planned, but as they got behind they had the option to take a shorter route instead of waiting in the north for the light wind to clear. But anyway that is all behind us now.
How do you see the state of play at the moment?
Well, MAPFRE and Dongfeng are like Siamese twins right next to each other with Akzo ahead and to leeward and Scallywag a long way to leeward.
Whose position do you like best?
At the moment the best position is Akzo because the sideways separation is not so big that it is a massive disadvantage to be to leeward. They will be a little bit slower because it’s all tight reaching, so the boats to weather can sail a slightly faster angle. And if you sail half a knot quicker every hour it really starts to add up and there is still quite a way to go to the Equator.
What about Scallywag?
She is a lot to leeward. I have looked at routes for Dongfeng and Scallywag and you can see that, depending on the model and where they cross the Equator, the distance between them is insignificant – we are talking about anywhere between one and 10 miles by the time they are approaching the Doldrums which is almost nothing.
Seems a fairly open race at this stage no?
Yes, at the moment the important thing is not to panic – it is all still up for grabs. Akzo has a tiny lead going into the Doldrums but that is only the start and there is still a lot of golf left in this hole.
What effect will the Tropical Cyclone have on the race?
Tropical Cyclone Gita has just hit Tonga and is now south of Fiji. It is predicted to convert to a tropical depression so it will no longer be a cyclone. I think the first Doldrums passage will be fairly easy – there will be good northwesterly winds north of the Solomon Islands. The cyclone sort of sucks the northwest monsoon in which will make the Doldrums fairly easy. However once the cyclone moves away it will leave very little left in weather terms – a lightair mess.
Does that mean another nightmare in the “second” Doldrums?
Yes, potentially. When they go into the second Doldrums – the South Pacific Convergence Zone – I expect that to be a bit of a mess because the cyclone has moved through a few days before. It will move from left to right across their bows. It will not influence them and there is no danger to the fleet from it - it will all be gone by the time they get there - but in the wake of the cyclone there will be very, very little wind. So the first Doldrums will be relatively painless, nothing like the last leg. The second Doldrums, which they will hit north of Vanuatu, I expect to be really complicated. After that it’s a reach or a beat/fetch to Auckland in medium easterlies.
Does the track of the cyclone affect where the boats will try to cross the second Doldrums area?
Yes it will affect the routing through the second Doldrums and overall the danger is being west of the fleet, but it is not guaranteed that being east of the fleet pays off massively either. But the east-west separation that the fleet has now is pretty insignificant – everyone can get to the same spots from where they are now, so all options are open.
What’s the timing on all this?
Well, there are still another 12-13 days to sail – the first Doldrums will be starting Thursday night or Friday morning. The second one will begin on Sunday evening or so.
So finally, just thinking about the first Doldrum passage, will navigators already be working out where to cross it?
I think it will only be in the last 24 hours approaching the Doldrums that you can make some kind of plan – at the moment it is all maybes. At the moment to make any radical course changes to avoid something in the Doldrums is pretty radical in itself.
Thanks Marcel!
*Image: Tropical Cyclone Gita course
Source: Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems
