Over the last 24 hours the leading boats – Team AkzoNobel, Team Brunel and Dongfeng – have got through the light air corridor and have benefitted from being the first into the new breeze that is now blowing from the north.
However the last stages of this leg could turn into another drift-off as the fleet enters another area of high pressure with very little wind forecast for the Celtic Sea and the Bristol Channel.
Getting to the finish line in Cardiff Bay could be a real nightmare and there is every chance that the fleet will compress again before the final order is established on this double-points scoring leg.
After the drama of the finish at Newport, when Dongfeng slipped from leading to fourth place in 15 miles, skipper Charles Caudrelier and navigator Pascal Bidegorry will be doing all in their power to ensure that they do not get caught out for the second leg finish in a row as they deal with the same potentially lethal ingredients – very light wind and a strong spring tidal flow.
Taking the positions right now with just over 400 miles to go, the scoreboard would look nice for Dongfeng. The Chinese-flagged crew would emerge from the leg once again leading the race by one point from MAPFRE (but actually two points when the end-of-race bonus for shortest elapsed time is added in), with Team Brunel in third place, six points behind Dongfeng.
If Team Brunel (+7.7) manages to overtake AkzoNobel in the last few miles of the stage, the scoreboard would look more interesting at the top as the Dutch team moves into contention for an overall race win. In that scenario Bouwe Bekking’s much-improved crew would be only three (or four) points behind Dongfeng and just two points behind MAPFRE.
As this Volvo Ocean Race reaches its final stages, we are beginning to see the overall pattern of performance by the leading teams. Dongfeng Race Team has been a model of consistency; MAPFRE started brilliantly but has faded in the second half of the race; Team Brunel is the most-improved crew after a poor start, while Vestas 11th Hour Racing would have been a potential race winner had they not crashed and then dismasted.
Latest position report at 10:14:00 UTC:
1. Team AkzoNobel. DTF: 3,042.1nm
2. Team Brunel. DTL: 3.8nm
3. Dongfeng Race Team. DTL: 47.2nm
4. Vestas 11th Hour Racing. DTL: 84.1nm
5. MAPFRE. DTL: 110.8nm
6. Turn the Tide on Plastic. DTL: 155.9nm
7. Team Sun Hung Kai / Scallywag. DTL: 243.1nm
